Market Status

The charts will be updated by every Saturday. When no change to text, [NC] will be used. Click for favorite investment websites or to go to the Investors' Forum.

Stocks above their 50-day Moving Average



[NC]  This chart shows the number of Nasdaq stocks that are above their 50-day moving averages. The horizontal lines at 25 and 70 are arbitrary, and tend to indicate when a move is nearing an end. The Nasdaq composite index ($COMPQ) is shown below on a percentage scale for correlation. 


[NC]  When this indicator is near a high extreme, it indicates an overbought market. A drop near 25 indicates a very oversold market. 
 





Bullish Percent Index

[NC]  The Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) for the S&P 500 is shown in red together with the S&P 500 Index ($SPX).

[NC]  The Bullish Percent Index takes a group of stocks and records the percentage of those stocks that have a Point & Figure Buy signal from their point and figure chart. The BPI for the S&P 500 is shown over a 4-year period.

[NC]  A 7-day EMA has been added where crossovers seem to be a good indication of a short-term trend change as shown with the S&P 500 superimposed on the BPI chart.

[NC]  If the BPI is above 80, all is well; above 65 probably indicates that a correction is a dip-buying opportunity; below 65 means that there may be a more serious correction coming.  A short-term bottom may occur around 25.
 

Sector Bullish Percent

[NC] Looking at the BPI of sectors is a good way to get a feel for how they are performing. Click here to see charts for ten S&P market sectors.  


Volatility

[NC]  The Volatility Index (VIX) shows the large-cap market's expectation of 30-day volatility. The index is based on prices of S&P 500 options that investors tend to rush to when they are fearful of stock declines. The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". When the fear is highest, the market is likely to bottom and start up as all those in fear would have sold. There is greater detail at Investopedia.com. 

[NC]  Below is a one-year plot of the VIX with the S&P 500 on a percentage scale at the bottom. In the middle is the RSI of the VIX. When the RSI hits the blue 60 line there is danger of a decline (starts with a red vertical pole). When the RSI hits 45, green pole, the probability of making money in the market can be much better. All indicators lag the market, and are not good in a choppy market. A green pole will not be placed if the VIX is above 20, and a buy alert will be canceled if the VIX goes above 20. Note also that low points in the market usually occur when the VIX peaks. 

[NC]  A VIX Sell Alert (red pole) occurred on Wednesday 10/2 when the RSI of the VIX went above 60. The traditional view is that it is dangerous to be in the market when the VIX is above 20.



Margin Debt Impact

[NC]  Notice the relationship of margin debt to the market. This is the real S&P 500 index. As Jill Mislinski states, "there are too few peak/trough episodes in this overlay series to take the latest credit balance data as a leading indicator of a major selloff in U.S. equities. This has been an interesting indicator to watch and will certainly continue to bear close watching in the months ahead."   

Margin Debt



This page is for amusement only, and should not be taken as advice to buy or sell anything.