Longer-Term Outlook

The charts will be updated by every Saturday. When no change to text, [NC] will be used. 

[NC]  The longer-term indicators below shows a UP MARKET, within an intermediate-term BULL CYCLE, within a longer-term BULL TREND.  A BULL MARKET is underway as the S&P 500 index crossed above its July peak.

Monthly 20-Year Chart

[NC]  This chart gives a long-term perspective on the current action. A BULL TREND started during the week ending 5/19/2023 when the MACD cross occurred. There was a close call for a bear trend to start, but that didn't happen as shown by the expanded view at the right. Included in the chart are the 12-month and 36-month simple moving averages. The MACD is based on the difference between the 8 and 30-month exponential moving averages with a red 7-month EMA of the MACD, the signal line. Crossovers indicate a change in the primary trend and seem to be a good indication of where the market is going. The window at the right gives a magnified view of the recent monthly action.

Weekly Four-Year Chart

[NC]  Below is a weekly chart of the S&P 500 index. A record high occurred on 2/19/2020. Then a serious crash occurred due to the fear of the corona virus affect on the economy. This caused the start of a bear cycle, which preceded a long bull cycle. In February 2022 the MACD dropped down to again indicate a bear cycle. Since the later part of 2022 an up-channel is carrying the market higher, however, this channel was broken in the week ending 10/20/2023. The MACD broke below zero during that week indicating that a bear cycle started.  A BULL CYCLE is underway during this favorable time of the year.. The RSI is above 70, which shows positive momentum, but an overbought market on a weekly basis. It could stay overbought after the Fed action.

[NC]  When the RSI is over 70 it indicates an overbought market, the pros like the high momentum and buy more. The market can stay "overbought" for quite a while in a strong market. The red down-arrows indicate when the 9-week RSI drops below 70 -- perhaps a time to take some short-term profits thus reducing risk. The MACD shows when the bull and bear cycles occur -- a rise above or below zero.  The cycle determination is explained in more detail on the Observations page. A weekly chart should be used to determine the market trend. Then a daily chart can be used to time entries or exits.

Chart of Advances - Declines

[NC]  Most of the indexes are capitalized weighted.  That means that large-cap stocks are given the most weight and smaller-capitalization stocks don't contribute much to the index.  The Advance-Decline Line takes all stocks into consideration in an equal-weighted manner. The Russell 1000 Index tracks the 1000 top largest companies by market capitalization in the United States, which represent about 90% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index. The Advance-Decline Line is a breadth indicator based on net advances, which is the number of advancing stocks less the number of declining stocks. The A-D Line includes all stocks on the New York Stock Exchange.

[NC]  The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) is equivalent to the MACD and it went above zero on Friday Nov 16 predicting an up move in the market, which did occur. The A-D line just barely exceeded the July high as the stock index did.  The A-D then dropped, while the Russell 1000 index continued moving up. This was not a good sign as the small-cap stocks were not participating in the rally. Now the A-D line is moving up to show broader participation in the rally.

Basis of UP/DOWN and BULL/BEAR Cycle Indications

The technical indicators listed below give a feeling for the strength of the overall market and whether there are signs of a turn. A good confirmation of a turn from bullish to bearish is the 52-week new lows exceeding the thresholds below.

  • Price Trend of S&P 500 - UP
  • Daily S&P 500 Moving Averages - UP in a BULL Cycle
    • Bull: price above 200-day SMA - BULL
    • Bear: price below 200-day SMA -
    • UP: Both 50-day & 200-day SMAs moving up - UP
    • DOWN: Both SMAs moving down -
    • MIXED: averages not moving together -
  • Daily Small-Cap (IWM) Moving Averages - UP in a BULL Cycle
    • Bull: price above 200-day SMA - BULL
    • Bear: price below 200-day SMA -
    • UP: Both 50-day & 200-day SMAs moving up - UP
    • DOWN: Both SMAs moving down -
    • MIXED: averages not moving together
  • Weekly MACD(5,26,0) Histogram + or - (see chart above) - BULL
  • Percent of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day EMAs greater or less than 55% - BULL

  • Market Leadership (relative strength) -  DOWN
    • Small cap stocks generally lead large caps - DOWN
    • Growth stocks lead value stocks (large-cap) - UP
    • Technicals (QQEW, equal-weight Nasdaq 100) tend to lead the general market (RSP, equal-weight S&P 500) - DOWN
  • McClellan Summation of Advances & Declines of Nasdaq (slope) - UP

  • S&P 500 Accumulation/Distribution - above or below its 20-day EMA - UP
  • 52-Week Highs and Lows (excluding ETFs) - UP
    • NYSE New Lows - UP if less than 45 for three days - UP
    • Nasdaq New Lows - Up if less than 100 for three days - DOWN
    • 3-day MA of Nasdaq NH-NL positive or negative - UP

  • Consensus of the above  - UP (6 out of 7) in a Transitioning Bull/Bear Cycle 

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Bull or Bear Market?

[NC]  A bear market is generally considered to be a drop of greater than 20% from the last major closing high in the S&P 500 index. That did occur in 2022 with a drop from the all-time high on Jan 3, 2022 (shown in the chart) to a low on October 13th. That was a 23.4% drop in the S&P 500 index on a closing basis. Then a 23.6% rally took the index to a high on July 27, 2023. 

[NC]  The S&P 500 posted its highest close of 2023 on Thursday Dec 28, 2023, which basically equalled its record close on January 3, 2022. When the index went above its July 27, 2023 close a bull market. was declared.

[NC]  The chart below gives a really long term perspective. These are true bull and bear markets and are shown by the blue and red colors, respectively. The recent "dip" does not look very significant on this chart.

The source of these charts is given at the upper right of the chart. This page is for amusement only, and should not be taken as advice to buy or sell anything.